The San Francisco 49ers proved their dominance in a comprehensive 31-14 victory over the Chicago Bears. With contributions from every unit, the 49ers are looking like a well-oiled machine as they march toward the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears will have to regroup and focus on development as they look ahead to next season. The 49ers’ win on Sunday was another reminder of why they are one of the NFL’s most complete teams.
The 49ers’ playoff odds actually got worse after Sunday’s win
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The San Francisco 49ers finally looked like Super Bowl contenders in Sunday’s blowout win over the hapless Chicago Bears. But even with the victory, the Niners’ chances to reach the playoffs got worse.
It was a rough weekend for San Francisco’s chances at making it to the NFC playoffs, particularly in the NFC West. Even by improving to 6-7, the Athletic’s playoff model took the Niners’ chances to win the division down a percentage point from the week prior, now down to 4%. Their overall chances at a playoff spot remained the same at 6%, too.
It’s not looking much better with other statistical models or projections. ESPN’s projections have the 49ers at an 11% chance to make the playoffs and 8% chance to win the division (ESPN’s Football Power Index metric still loves the 49ers), while NFL.com’s NextGenStats model gives San Francisco an 8% chance to make the playoffs. The Washington Post has the harshest outlook for the Niners, giving them a 2% chance to win the division and 4% for a playoff spot.
The main reason for the down odds, even with the Niners’ win, can be tied to their three blown leads in their divisional showdowns and the extended repercussions from them.
On Sunday, the division-leading Seattle Seahawks took down the Arizona Cardinals 30-18 in the Valley of the Sun to improve to 8-5. Not only did that keep San Francisco two games behind Seattle, but it also gave Seattle a third division win for the season.
Even in the 49ers’ best-case scenario of finishing 10-7, which would bring their division record to 3-3, the Niners can’t win the division if Seattle beats the Rams on the road in Week 18 and notches one other win (they host the Packers and Vikings, then travel to face the Bears). Since the teams split their two games this year, the next tiebreaker is division record, and a win over the Rams would give Seattle four NFC West wins.
Meanwhile, those Rams won a shootout over the Buffalo Bills 44-42 in Inglewood to jump to 7-6. The 49ers can pull even with the Rams in their Thursday night showdown, but the Rams will finish their schedule by facing the Jets on the road before hosting the Cardinals and Seahawks. At 2-1 in the division so far, the Rams could lose to the 49ers but still beat them for a division title by sweeping their final three games — the last two wins would give them four NFC West wins.
The 49ers still have a path to a wild card berth, too, since the Washington Commanders are 8-5. But to even have a chance to catch Washington, the 49ers will need them to lose two of their final four games (at the Saints, hosting the Eagles and Falcons, and then at the Cowboys). It’s certainly possible, but it’s a long shot.
No matter how you slice it, the 49ers won’t have any control over their own destiny — and will need some of their NFC rivals to help them out to keep their playoff hopes alive.
